Probability Risk Assessment of Man-Machine System Based on Boundary Identification of Flight Performance Margin

Statistics indicate that most of flight accidents are caused by human factors. In this paper, we deal with flight safety issues using the pilot-in-the-loop model. The work is composed of following aspects. Firstly, a new man-machine-environment model is built considering human factors based on a six Degree-of-Freedoms (DoFs) aircraft model. Secondly, the influence of uncertain human factors on flight safety is explored by selecting different probability distribution function of the human factors in order to study the quantitative impact of human factors. Different controlled experiments results show that the model is flexible in obtaining flight data in different settings of human factors that may be useful for improving flight safety. Furthermore, using the POT model, the quantitative risk of flight accident and the probability risk of man-machine system are studied. Numerical simulation results are given to illustrate the effective of the method proposed in this paper, which is expected to provide a new analytical method for flight safety.