An affordable lunar architecture emphasizing commercial and international partnering opportunities

Since the cancellation of the Constellation Program, NASA officially has been focused on Mars as the next step for human exploration. Yet many in the space community believe that returning humans to the moon is more logical. Often-cited reasons for this include: (1) should Nature prove to be favorable, the moon could be the basis for expanding the space economy through Off-Earth Mining (OEM) and other commercial endeavors; (2) the moon is scientifically interesting and could serve as a platform for scientific facilities; and (3) useful experience could be gained there for the human journey to Mars. With this in mind, JPL's A-Team (Architecture Team) was tasked with developing conceptual lunar surface architectures that could simultaneously provide “living on another world” proving ground experience, but would also be affordable and offer truly significant commercial and international partnering opportunities. The task also required that the resulting architectures must eventually lead to and flow seamlessly into planning for human missions to Mars in the 2030s/2040s, if “things go well.” This aspect has been critically missing in other lunar architecture proposals. For continued NASA investment in any future human exploration architecture, affordability is a political imperative. This translates into managing the magnitude of the public investment by NASA in lunar infrastructure while doing those things that governments can do to stimulate new economic opportunities there. The menu of such potential strategic investments include: (1) engaging in science and exploration (e.g., Lewis and Clark); (2) reducing economic risks and resolving some technical uncertainties to create tipping points and real options for space entrepreneurs; (3) performing R&D/DDT&E and first buys of basic systems/services; (4) building public (lunar) infrastructure (e.g., roads, navigation aids, basic communications, logistics nodes, operational knowledge/de-confliction); and (5) acting as an anchor tenant. While incorporating these strategic elements into the architecture development as a way to encourage private sector development of the space economy and international partner contributions, the A-Team also recognized that both off-ramps and on-ramps (and periodic decision points) were needed to ensure that public goals for human space exploration were being met. Key questions might include: (1) are private investors coming on board; and (2) are we ready to go to Mars? In this paper, we present and describe the A-Team's lunar architecture that meets the requirements set out above using a high-level system-of-systems architectural view, which we call a “dance card.” We then process the information in the dance card into an affordability view, commonly called a “sand chart.” The method and model used for this is described in some detail, along with the sources of data. Lastly, we discuss the extensive commercial opportunities, which include in situ resource utilization (ISRU), cargo logistics, tourism, utilities for lunar activities, and construction, as well as the international partner contribution opportunities embodied within the architecture. We also review the viability of these commercial opportunities based on previous research.