Fuel for a better future at UVA

Strategic decisions regarding fuels used to meet the University of Virginia's current and future steam demand require an in-depth understanding of the operations of the University of Virginia's Main Heat Plant. The current mix of fossil fuels that the Main Heat Plant depends on to heat the University is constrained in numerous ways, including: the University of Virginia's natural gas allotments, the contractual curtailments on natural gas set by the City of Charlottesville, the University of Virginia's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and financial costs. This paper focuses on developing an 8760 (24 hours × 365 days) model that compares multiple what-if scenarios on key measures through simulating the performance of the plant during a year at one hour increments. These scenarios evaluate the effects of changes to the aforementioned constraints and also to increases in demand. Operators at the Main Heat Plant will use the model through an interface that allows them to observe the performance of the system and explore different alternatives by selecting specific scenarios. Summary graphics for parameters such as greenhouse gas emissions, fuel usage, and cost provide decision makers in the plant and in University of Virginia administration with information needed to make strategic decisions regarding the Main Heat Plant and related fuel agreements. The simulated results were validated through a comparison against actual data collected from July 2016 to June 2017, resulting in 65% of modeled fuel states, matching the historical fuel states for the same periods.