A model for predicting human life safety in air-pocket of capsizing ship

To determine the best rescue time of capsizing accident, drawing up the rescue plan and providing the medical assistance, a mathematical model for predicting physiological condition and survival time of human in air-pocket of capsizing ship is developed. The model consists of two parts: one is the dual-cylinder thermoregulatory model that describe the thermal responses of the victim and the changes of metabolism rate. The other one is the respiratory model that describes the functional relationship of metabolic rate and oxygen consumption rate. Physiological condition and extreme survival time are predicted according to body temperature index and oxygen concentration index of air-pocket. The results show that the predicted value of the dual-cylinder thermoregulatory model is acceptable. Combining with the respiratory model, it can predict the curve of the impacts of water temperature and oxygen concentration on human physiological conditions, providing references for maritime accident rescue.