Probabilistic transmission planning at ERCOT

Traditional transmission planning for electric power systems involves analyzing certain system conditions for a number of contingency events based on deterministic criteria. This paper discusses the motivations for ERCOT to explore probabilistic approaches in transmission planning and presents the potential applications of probabilistic planning methods that ERCOT is currently investigating. It also presents a case study that ERCOT and EPRI have worked on as part of a joint effort and the potential challenges for implementing probabilistic planning methods.