Method of dynamic air combat threat evaluation based on time series

In view of the traditional methods of the air combat threat evaluation are difficult to combined with the develop trend of the total air combat situation. Therefore, a method of dynamic air combat threat evaluation based on time series is presented. Firstly, a new theoretical framework for the dynamic air combat threat evaluation is presented, and the index system of the dynamic air combat threat evaluation is established. Then, the time series weights of selected air combat information are gained by the exponential distribution method, and the dynamic decision matrix is determined in line with the collected succession and newest air combat information, and the target attribute weights are solved by cross-entropy method. Finally, a mathematical model of the dynamic air combat threat evaluation is established. And the simulation indicates that the method is scientific and reasonable, but also the evaluation results more convincing compare to the traditional threat evaluation methods.