An example of scenario-based evaluation of military capability areas An impact assessment of alternative systems on operations

The concept of military capabilities is often used in strategic planning of defense. This study describes an example of scenario-based evaluation of military capability areas using alternative systems. The study concentrates on three capability areas: protection, awareness and engagement. Evaluations of new systems in realistic but future-oriented scenarios may reveal new possibilities to utilize collaboration of different systems or to replace existing systems with new ones. The study indicates how the combination of UAVs and satellites is the most prominent system compared to UAV or satellite systems to enhance protection, engagement and awareness capability, especially in the 10-year span. Technology development may reveal unexpected synergies in the utilization of the combination of these two systems. Further work will focus on the application of the methodology in other areas and on the collection of data to analyze the effect of the technology development to the capability areas.

I. Introduction

Common methods in the strategic planning of defense are based on the concept of capability areas. For strategic planning, it is essential to have foresight information on different aspects. Historic technology trends and estimations of probable futures may provide misleading results. Therefore, the evaluation of new technologies and systems in scenarios representing future missions is important. This type of evaluations enables capability analysis of existing military assets and possible capability improvements by new systems. Evaluations of new systems in realistic but future-oriented scenarios may reveal new possibilities in utilizing collaboration of different systems or in replacing existing systems with new ones.