Adaptive Rolling Smoothing With Heterogeneous Data for Traffic State Estimation and Prediction

Spatial-temporal traffic state estimation and the prediction of urban expressways is a vital component of traffic management and information systems. The adaptive smoothing method is one of the most frequently used approaches to estimate traffic states. However, the fixed filter parameters used in existing approaches sometimes fail to characterize traffic dynamics well. To better capture generation, propagation, and mitigation dynamics of traffic congestion, we propose an adaptive rolling smoothing (ARS) approach by dynamically tuning the filter parameters in a rolling horizon scheme for online applications. The fusion of heterogeneous traffic data combines aggregate traffic measurements (e.g., traffic flow rate, time occupancy, and speed collected by remote microwave sensors) and disaggregate information (e.g., timestamps of individual vehicles detected by license plate recognition cameras). A nonlinear traffic flow filter based on the virtual trajectory algorithm is established to reconstruct the spatial-temporal traffic state and estimate experienced travel times of individual vehicles. The results demonstrate the capability and effectiveness of the proposed ARS approach in the historical traffic state estimation and short-term traffic flow prediction. Complicated traffic states of weaving, merging, and diverging segments can be well distinguished by reconstructing time-space speed diagrams. The proposed approach can be extended to develop efficient missing data imputation algorithms and hierarchical control strategies for heterogeneously congested urban expressways.