GIS-Based Simulation Methodology for Evaluating Ship Encounters Probability to Improve Maritime Traffic Safety

Evaluating ship encounters probability efficiently is significant for maritime transportation risk analysis as well as improving maritime traffic safety. In practice, ship encounters probability estimate by using traditional observation or field experiments is nearly impossible due to the expensive cost. In this paper, we propose a methodology framework for evaluating ship encounters probability based on an agent-based simulation paradigm. Individual ship’s navigation behavior is modeled as an agent, and their encounters are detected by an innovative geographic information system (GIS)-based intelligent algorithm. We then design and implement a prototype simulator based on the methodology framework and apply it in the mid-western waters of Bohai Sea of China to demonstrate its functionalities and utility. The findings show that the framework proposed in this paper has potential to provide decision support for guiding future marine transportation planning. This paper offers new insights and valuable demonstration on promoting maritime traffic safety management with the integration of GIS and emerging complex system simulation technology.

I. Introduction

Maritime transportation is the main transportation mode for domestic and international trade over the world, with its advantages of large freight volume, low cost, and less pollution [1]. Maritime transport is essential to the world’s economy as about 90% of world’s trade is transported by sea, and it is, by far, the most cost-effective way to move masse goods and raw materials around the world [2]. Globalization leads to a rapid growth in maritime transportation, both in the size and amount of ships [3]. China has also experienced rapid society and economic development during the last three decades, and the international shipping volume of China has increased steadily [4]. It is predicted that the international shipping capacity of China will double by 2030, implying that the expanding trend of her shipping fleets is expected to continue in the future [4]. Maritime transportation is thus of great significance for national economic security and foreign trade development of China [4]. With the prosperity brought by maritime transportation, however, emerging issues pertaining to maritime traffic safety have yet to receive the essential attention they deserve [5].