Modeling misperception of options and preferences in the graph model for conflict resolution

The standard graph model for conflict resolution is enhanced to model misperception of options and preferences. In particular, misperception caused by unknown options by one or more decision makers (DMs) is formally defined in the modified graph model framework. Moreover, DMs' preferences are expressed in a relative fashion by pairwise comparisons among any pair of states. That is, the modified graph model can handle both transitive and intransitive preference structures. Furthermore, three sets of equilibria are defined within the modified graph model, namely, steady, unsteady, and stealthy equilibria. The aim of identifying equilibria sets is to ascertain the first level hypergame equilibria for the modified graph model. The 2011 conflict between North and South Sudan over South Sudanese oil exports is studied using the modified graph model to illustrate the applicability of the model and to gain better insight into and understanding of the dispute.