Track quality prediction based on center approach Markov-Grey GM(1,1) model

The prediction of the track quality (TQI) is paid much more attention than ever before since the steel track is directly related to the safety and the comfort of the railway vehicles. In this paper, a method so called Markov-Grey GM(1,1) model is applied for predicting the TQI. The result of the comparison between this new method and the traditional grey prediction theory shows that the precision of the Markov-Grey GM(1,1) model is superior to the traditional method. The proposed method in this paper provides an alternative for the track quality prediction for the cost effective track maintenance.