Using Survival Theory in Early Pattern Detection for Viral Cascades

In recent years, social networks have developed rapidly and become an indispensable part of people’s everyday life. Many models try to predict whether some reshare cascades are going to be popular or not, but most of their performances are limited due to the lack of cascades’ information in the early stage. In this paper, we propose
Early Pattern detection model for Outbreak Cascades
(in abbreviation, EPOC) inspired by the survival theory. We use three features to predict cascades’ virality: retweet sequence, follower number sequence, and timestamps of the first tweet which includes both the static and dynamic characteristics of cascades. Utilizing the theory that distributions of both viral and non-viral cascades are Gaussian, we get the boundary between these two kinds of cascades with sufficient proof to testify its rationality. To detect the virality more precisely and earlier, based on hazard functions in the survival theory, we propose two different hazard ceilings to capture the bursting of the cascades. We also provide a series of numerical experiments to analyze impacts of different factors to performance of our model measured by three practical metrics. The results shows that our model could stably outperforms several state-of-art baselines.