Stochastic Evolutionary Game Model of Hot Topics Propagation for Network Public Opinion

Due to the rapid propagation and significant impact, the network public opinion of hot topics has become a concern of the social public and governments. The existing models based on the evolutionary game cannot reflect the real-world propagation of hot topics under uncertain environmental interference. And few researchers analyze the early intervention timing of the government on hot topics based on stochastic evolutionary game theory. To solve these problems, the government intervention parameters of punishment intensity, intervention delay, and intervention probability are introduced to build a three-party stochastic evolutionary game model of “media-netizen-government” in the multi-agent system under the scene of hot topics propagation. Then, the stochastic differential equation is expanded and simulated by the explicit forward Euler numerical method. Finally, simulation experiments are conducted to quantitatively analyze the random evolutionary process and the government intervention timing by adjusting key parameters, which can provide the optimal timing and suggestions for governments to intervene in hot topics propagation.