Accuracy and Confidence of Strategic Intelligence in Cases of Inadequate Information: Implications for Acquisition of Collection Systems

In the early stages of acquisition of strategic intelligence collection systems, we may distinguish between developing new capabilities or adding additional capacity. To inform this decision, we suggest the use of a routine analytic product: long time series of reported accuracy and confidence. We test this by simulating notional collection and reporting in situations of inadequate capability and capacity. Inadequate capability, particularly where possible alternatives are not acknowledged, is the most striking case with consistently high confidence and low accuracy. Inadequate capacity is more recognizable, with well-calibrated but widely varying confidence and low accuracy. The adequate collection is identified with well-calibrated, slightly varying confidence and high accuracy. Capability and capacity may be able to be traded with similar performance.