Remaining Useful Life Prediction of Aerial Bundled Cables in Coastal Areas Using Thermal and Corrosion Degradation Models

Insulated aerial bundled cables (ABCs) are preferred over conventional bare conductor cables in electrical distribution system as ABCs are more safe, less prone to electricity pilferage and offers higher reliability. However, the degradation phenomenon of ABCs is sudden as compared to conventional cables especially in coastal areas. Sudden failures of ABCs in coastal areas make the maintenance planning challenging. Hence, accurate reliability estimation is required which can enable timely maintenance planning and in turn reducing the chances of failures. A novel reliability model is reported in this work which is derived from historical failure data of particular type of ABCs coupled with the degradation models. The models are based upon the actual environmental conditions experienced by the cables under study. The actual loading data as well as environmental data of two sites of varying distance from Seashore are used to develop the respective reliability models. The reliability prediction from proposed reliability model is then validated using time to failure computation through comparison of historical infrared thermography based Non-destructive testing (NDT) data, acquired at the sites under study, with reference to NDT measurements acquired from the ruptured/failed cable. The validation indicates the efficacy of the proposed reliability model.