Optimal Dynamic Line Rating Forecasts Selection Based on Ampacity Probabilistic Forecasting and Network Operators’ Risk Aversion

Real-time current-carrying capacity of overhead conductors is extremely variable due to its dependence on weather conditions, resulting in the use of traditionally conservative static ratings. This paper proposes a methodology for exploiting the latent current-carrying capacity of overhead transmission lines taking into account line ampacity forecasts, power flow simulations, and the network operator's risk aversion. The procedure can be described as follows: First, probabilistic forecasts for the current rating of transmission lines are generated, paying particular attention to the reliability of the lower part of the distribution. Second, a cost benefit analysis is carried out by solving a bilevel stochastic problem that takes into account the reduction in generation costs, resulting from a higher power transfer capacity and the increased use of reserves caused by forecast errors. The risk appetite of the network operator is considered in order to accept or penalize high-risk situations, depending on whether the network operator can be described as risk neutral or risk averse.