Probabilistic Security Analysis of Optimal Transmission Switching

Optimal transmission switching (OTS) optimizes simultaneously the generation dispatch and the topology of a power system. It has been shown that taking some transmission lines out of service can significantly reduce the operating cost of the system while respecting the traditional deterministic N-1 security criterion of operational reliability. However, topology modifications could adversely affect probabilistic security metrics. The operational reliability of a power system can be translated into a cost by multiplying the expected energy not served by the value of lost load. This paper therefore explores whether it is possible to maintain a positive economic balance with OTS when considering not only the cost of generation but also the expected socio-economic cost of disruptions in the supply. This is done in two steps: the computation of an N-1 secure OTS and then the calculation of a probabilistic estimate of the operational reliability of the OTS solution. Based on the results obtained with two test systems, it is shown that OTS tends to significantly degrade probabilistic measures of security. It is thus not obvious that OTS can lead to a positive economic balance, even when N-1 security is enforced. Consequently, a probabilistic security analysis should be performed before implementing an OTS solution.