A Methodology to Evaluate Reactive Power Reserves Scarcity During the Energy Transition

The lack of reserves for reactive power production and absorption is an envisioned, still basically unexplored, threat to the voltage profile adequacy and thereby secure operation of transmission grids during the energy transition toward renewable-dominated power production. This paper proposes a novel, generic, comprehensive, and realistic methodology to identify when this issue of reactive power reserves (RPRs) scarcity during plausible scenarios of the energy transition would become severe. The computational core of the proposed methodology comprises four different AC security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problems: one conventional, two tailored ones that assess the RPRs scarcity in production and absorption modes, respectively, and an optimal reactive power dispatch. The methodology is versatile, offering the possibility to assess RPRs in different timescales, ranging from day-ahead short-term operation to years-ahead long-term operation, and considering appropriate renewable energy production forecasts and day-dependent load profiles. The proposed methodology can serve as a decision support tool for the transmission system operator (TSO), allowing to plug and play different plausible energy transition scenarios (e.g., differing in terms of sequence and timing of: phased out power plants as well as location, type, and size of renewable energy sources deployed) and ultimately informing the TSO about the timing where RPRs become insufficient to maintain security. Without loss of generality, the value of the proposed methodology is extensively demonstrated in a 60-bus Nordic32 system, considering 52
$N-1$
line and generator contingencies, while the tractability of AC SCOPF problems is assessed in a 1,203-bus system.