Signals and Metrics Identifying Partnerships for Innovation

The global science and technology landscape is rapidly changing. In an environment where collaboration is necessary for scientific and technological innovation, it is nonetheless challenging to identify and establish relationships between international partners, especially in emerging technological fields where no country has yet demonstrated a clear advantage. This article describes a model to facilitate a quantitative assessment and ranking of national innovation potential based on the integration of established measures (e.g., patents and peer-reviewed publication counts) as well as nonobvious or subjective measures (e.g., national attitudes toward particular veins of research) to predict future performance. Such an assessment can provide a helpful step toward improving projections of scientific performance, particularly for those countries with a relatively limited footprint in the scientific landscape. Modeling can help identify and engage newcomers early in the innovation process to maximize benefits from a potential bilateral or multilateral relationship.