Impact of Earth’s Magnetic Field Secular Drift on the Low-Altitude Proton Radiation Belt From 1900 to 2050

The effects of the space radiation environment on spacecraft systems and instruments are significant design considerations for space missions. In order to meet these challenges and have reliable, cost-effective designs, the radiation environment must be understood and accurately modeled. The low-altitude proton environment varies slowly in time due to the secular drift of Earth's main magnetic field and due to the evolution of the solar cycle. The purpose of this paper is to extend the onera proton altitude low model capabilities by introducing a prediction of Earth's main magnetic field model up to the year 2050. Impact on low-altitude spacecraft radiation specification for next space missions is then assessed.