Analysis of Sea Ice Area Fluctuation in the Arctic Circle Based on Big Data and SARIMA Model

This paper establishes the correlation between the historical sea ice area trends in different seas of the Arctic Circle by analyzing the effects of temperature changes in the Arctic Circle and the annual average concentration of global CO2 on them. This paper further investigates and analyzes the impact of sea level rise due to sea ice melting caused by temperature increase on the decay of world land area. Firstly, this paper establishes a non-smooth time series model SARIMA with seasonal effects using sea ice area data of 14 seas in the Arctic Circle, and calculates it by SPSS Statistic software to obtain the general solution of the relationship between sea ice area and time for each sea area in the Arctic Circle. Secondly, through the public database of NOAA, the average temperature and annual average CO2 concentration of the Arctic Circle in previous years are obtained, and a linear relationship is established based on the total sea ice area of the Arctic Circle from NSIDC, which is found to have a strong negative correlation with the total sea ice area of the Arctic Circle after analyzing the relationship equation. Finally, the annual average sea level rise height of the world in previous years was obtained through the environmental database of Columbia University, USA. According to Bruun's law, the equation of the relationship between the rate of shoreline retreat R and the height of sea level rise H was obtained, and by analyzing its relationship with the total area of sea ice in the Arctic Circle, it was concluded that the reduction of sea ice area would lead to the reduction of land area.