Assessment of the Impact of Extreme Weather on Power System Reliability

As global climate changing, the likelihood of extreme weather occurrences is increasing. Traditional reliability assessment methods often overlook the impact of extreme weather events on power systems. A method for calculating the reliability of power systems considering extreme weather conditions is proposed in the paper. By constructing extreme weather years and considering the effects of extreme heat with few wind and extreme cold with no sunlight, the generation characteristics of renewable resources and the load profile are adjusted during periods of extreme weather. A monte Carlo simulation is modeled for simulating the random events of power system operation to evaluate reliability indices. In the case study, reliability indices of a power system are computed through Monte Carlo simulation to assess whether the installed capacity meets the reliability criteria of the power system during extreme weather conditions. Consequently, generation expansion is performed to ensure the reliability of the power system.