Environmental Assessment for China's Energy Policy Based on Disaggregated Input Output Table

Preliminary assessment of energy policies holds significant importance in policy formulation and investment decision-making. The input-output (IO) table portrays an economy's production structure and possesses immense potential for conducting energy policy assessment. However, the limitations arising from the sector aggregation during Input-Output Table construction often hinder such potential. To address this issue, in this paper, we first present an approach to disaggregate the energy sectors in China's IO Table, followed by proposing an environmental assessment method for energy policies. Applying this method, we assess energy-related policies from China's 14th Five-Year Plan across three scenarios. The assessment reveals that, although these policies effectively reduce emissions, they fail to meet the carbon emission intensity reduction targets, even under the most optimistic scenario. The findings suggest that relying solely on the energy policy is inadequate to attain the desired carbon emission intensity reduction goals.