Impact of Russia-Ukraine war on Oil & Gas, Commodities and Metal Sector of Indian Economy

The global economy is grappling with significant consequences stemming from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The impact is notably observable in international trade, affecting vital commodities like wheat, crude oil, and raw materials. Despite India’s geographical distance from Russia and Ukraine, its trade connections expose it to the repercussions of their conflict. This study concentrates on evaluating how the Russia-Ukraine war has influenced three pivotal sectoral indices (Oil & Gas, Metal, and Commodities) within the Indian economy. Employing event study methodology, the analysis spans 364 days, covering 176 days before the event and 187 days after the event from September 01, 2021, to August 30, 2022.The findings disclose that nearly all sampled sectors experienced significantly positive abnormal returns during the post-event period, with the metal industry leading in showcasing the highest abnormal returns. Despite the initial positive returns, the market corrected itself. A prediction model has also been include in this study to predict the stock price of that time. These results provide potential advantages for portfolio managers, analysts, investors, and policymakers, aiding them in risk mitigation and the selection of appropriate investments during periods of heightened global uncertainty. The study’s conclusions also advocate for establishing an institutional and supervisory framework to identify and mitigate systematic risks through counter cyclical measures.