Impact of Temperature on the Residential Electricity Consumption in Pakistan

Global warming is the main issue for temperature variability, and it makes a huge impact on the electricity consumption of the country. This study will help to understand the relationship between temperature and electricity consumption and investment in the planning for power generation and investment to facilitate a green and low carbon economy for betterment of future. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of temperature on residential electricity consumption in the Karachi city, Pakistan, as we believe that the increase in temperature trends in the increase in the demand of electricity. Due to current electricity crisis in Pakistan, this study has investigated the residential electricity demand due to temperature fluctuation. Time series models based on monthly electricity consumption and temperature variables are developed to study the relationships between temperature and electricity demand as well as to predict the monthly electricity demand up to 45 days ahead. Classical methods of forecasting using Autoregressive model of time series analysis have been used. SARIMA model of order (1,0,0) with seasonal order (1, 1, 0) and period 12 and ETS has been used to forecast the electricity unit consumption of the Karachi city over a period of 12 months. On comparison of both techniques, SARIMA model has shown more significance and accuracy in modeling the consumption of electricity consumption and forecasting the future values. Result shows the huge variation in the trends due to change in temperature, we analyze the role of temperature based residential electricity consumption and based on this analysis energy shortage can be marked and potential solution can be suggested.