Catastrophe as an Anti-System: Prevention of the Flight Emergency Development

The statistics of aircraft crashes are analyzed, in which the catastrophe situation is a completion of unlikely random accidents. In such cases, the existing methods of investigation and research of catastrophe cannot establish the cause and, consequently, propose measures to prevent this type of catastrophes in the future. The hypothesis of the catastrophe as an anti-system that develops naturally, attracts certain resources, and eventually manifests itself in the form of destruction of the aviation man-machine system is substantiated. A mathematical apparatus for the study of catastrophes as anti-systems is proposed. A criterion to assess whether chains of low-probability accidents are random or whether they pose a danger to the aviation man-machine system is proposed. Measures to improve the safety of the aviation man-machine system within the framework of this paradigm are considered, as well as examples confirming the validity of the proposed approach.