Exhaustive Evaluation of Dynamic Link Prediction

Dynamic link prediction is a crucial task in the study of evolving graphs, which serve as abstract models for various real-world applications. Recent dynamic graph representation learning models have claimed near-perfect performance in this task. However, we argue that the standard evaluation strategy for dynamic link prediction overlooks the sparsity and recurrence patterns inherent in dynamic networks. Specifically, the current strategy suffers from issues such as evaluating models on a balanced set of positive and negative edges, neglecting the reassessment of frequently recurring positive edges, and lacking a comprehensive evaluation of both recurring and new edges.To address these limitations, we propose a novel evaluation strategy called EXHAUSTIVE, which takes into account all relevant negative edges and separately assesses the performance on recurring and new edges. Using our proposed evaluation strategy, we compare the performance of five state-of-the-art dynamic graph learning models on seven benchmark datasets. Compared to the previous common evaluation strategy, we observe an average drop of 62% in Average Precision for dynamic link prediction. Additionally, the ranking of the models also changes under the new evaluation setting. Furthermore, we demonstrate that while all models perform considerably worse when predicting new edges compared to recurring ones, the best performing models differ between the two scenarios. This highlights the importance of employing the proposed evaluation strategy for both the assessment and design of dynamic link prediction models. By adopting our novel evaluation strategy, researchers can obtain a more accurate understanding of model performance in dynamic link prediction, leading to improved evaluation and design of such models.