Impact of Heat Pump Electrification in Distribution Grids through a Socio-technical Approach

Predicting the timing and form of grid operation challenges under heat electrification helps to mitigate such challenges with quick and cost-effective interventions, which supports energy transition. However, most current modeling approaches focus on technical factors, neglecting equally important social and behavioral factors. We aim to demonstrate the importance of socio-technical approaches to energy demand analysis. First, we identified distinct heating control patterns by applying clustering analysis to self-reported data. Then we simulated the demand for 68 households, varying heating control patterns, accommodation types, PV penetration, and day of the year. Finally, we evaluate the total voltage deviation and the required power supply in a benchmark IEEE 69-node low-voltage radial distribution grid. The results show that the technical, environmental, and social factors analyzed have a substantial and varying impact on load temporality and intensity. In conclusion, it is imperative to take an interdisciplinary socio-technical research approach to inform demand-side management strategies.