Research of Shanghai Inbound Tourism Based on COVID-19 Intervention Model

This article selects monthly data on the number of inbound tourists in Shanghai from January 2012 to April 2023, introduces intervention analysis based on general time series forecasting methods, and conducts forecasting. Firstly, by drawing a time series graph, it is found that the sequence has trend effects and seasonal effects, and the sequence mean has changed since February 2020. We infer that this change is caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Then, an intervention model is established, and the future inbound tourism numbers are predicted based on the model. Finally, the forecasting analysis is carried out according to the previous analysis.