Explainable Long-Term Forecasting of Air Pollution

Long-term air pollution forecasting is essential for making public policies and issuing warnings. This will reduce the impact of pollution on the environment and human health. This research focuses on achieving long-term forecasting of air pollution attributes $(PM 2.5, PM_{10}, SO_{2}$, $NO_{2}, CO$, and $O_{3})$ by providing minimal historical data as input to the model. The best-performing models in this research produced between a 1% increase in RMSE for certain pollutants to a 50% decrease in RMSE for other air pollution attributes (except $CO)$ compared to the initial research on compositional learning, while being able to forecast the trend and seasonality accurately for more than one year into the future. The training time for each pollution attribute model dropped to 4 seconds compared to 1800 seconds in the case of the compositional learning method. This paper also delves into the challenges with long-term forecasting for the Beijing air quality dataset and discusses approaches to overcome these challenges.