Electrolyzer cost projections compared to actual market costs: A Critical Analysis

We conducted a systematic analysis of the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) and Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) for two of the commercially available green hydrogen production technologies, Alkaline Electrolysis Cell (AEC) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) electrolyzers. Our study compares projection data from a range of national and global studies up to 2050 with actual market costs. Overall, all studies concur on the relative cost decreases, estimating that CAPEX will decrease by more than two thirds in both technologies until 2050. LCOH is also expected to have halved its cost range until 2050. In comparison to actual market costs, our analysis suggests that most AEC cost projections tend to be aligned with actual market costs, while PEM electrolyzers cost projections seem overly pessimistic. These insights, coupled with our produced systemized cost curves, offer valuable guidance to investors and experts involved in transition planning toward green hydrogen integration.