A Vulnerability Modeling Method for Photovoltaic Generators Under Typhoons Disaster Based on Bayesian Theory

The failure of photovoltaic under typhoon conditions plays an important role in studying the influence of typhoon on power grid, so it is necessary to quantify the failure probability of PV under typhoon in order to prepare for power grid emergency. To achieve a more precise quantification of the PV failure probability curve, this paper proposes a PV vulnerability model under typhoon conditions based on Bayesian theory. This model combines on-site PV disaster data, enhancing the accuracy of the failure probability estimation. On this basis, using Monte Carlo Markov(MCM) algorithm to solve the posterior distribution in Bayes theory avoids the complicated numerical integration operation and improves the efficiency of solving the posterior distribution. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is verified by Matlab simulation results.