Study on the Low-carbon Transition Path of Power System in Developed Coastal Regions of China—Taking Zhejiang Province as an Example

Low-carbon transformation of the power system is an important guarantee for achieving the “dual-carbon” target. Notably, China's developed coastal regions must face robust electricity demand, relatively scarce onshore renewable resources, and great potential for offshore wind power. This study focuses on Zhejiang Province's specific circumstances, utilizing Balmorel model to explore the province's optimal pathway. The article analyses the power structure transformation path and annual system cost under different paths. Our study shows that before 2025, developed coastal regions should accelerate the development of offshore wind power, by around 2040, coal-fired power should phase out gradually while offshore wind power capacity should be actively promoted, by around 2050, solar power will grow rapidly, and CCS technology will be developed by around 2060. Furthermore, increased external supply could confer lower costs and reduce emissions pressures over the longer term.