Research on the investment strategy of hydrogen refueling stations based on Monte Carlo simulation

To determine the investment, reasonably predict the profitability of a hydrogen refueling station (HRS) and provide reference for enterprises to implement them, the article analyzes the profitability of hydrogen refueling stations by figuring out the supply and demand of hydrogen and explores the parameters influencing the price of hydrogen on both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, it is mainly influenced by the type of hydrogen refueling stations and the way hydrogen is prepared; on the demand side, the selling price of hydrogen is the core parameter. In order to ensure the independence between different variables, Markov chain is introduced to determine the dependence of different supply variables to compare the profitability. The simulation results show that based on the existing assumptions, the probability of profitability of a hydrogen refueling station is 38.9%, and the enterprises will face to risk about investing hydrogen refueling stations with higher technical costs. Meanwhile by calculating the profitability of different selling price ranges, the impact and sensitivity of selling price on the investment and construction of hydrogen refueling stations is confirmed. Combined with the development trend of the hydrogen industry, suggestions are provided for the construction of hydrogen refueling stations in the future.