Enhancing risk prediction capabilities in patients with carotid artery disease using a 2-level computational approach

One of the main causes of death worldwide is carotid artery disease, which causes increasing arterial stenosis and may induce a stroke. To address this problem, the scientific community aims to improve our understanding of the underlying atherosclerotic mechanisms, as well as to make it possible to forecast the progression of atherosclerosis. Additionally, over the past several years, developments in the field of cardiovascular modeling have made it possible to create precise three-dimensional models of patient-specific main carotid arteries. The aforementioned 3D models are then implemented by computational models to forecast either the progression of atherosclerotic plaque or several flow-related metrics which are correlated to risk evaluation. A precise representation of both the blood flow and the fundamental atherosclerotic process within the arterial wall is made possible by computational models, therefore, allowing for the prediction of future lumen stenoses, plaque areas and risk prediction. This work presents an attempt to integrate the outcomes of a novel plaque growth model with advanced blood flow dynamics where the deformed luminal shape derived from the plaque growth model is compared to the actual patient-specific luminal model in terms of several hemodynamic metrics, to identify the prediction accuracy of the aforementioned model. Pressure drop ratios had a mean difference of <3%, whereas OSI-derived metrics were identical in 2/3 cases.Clinical Relevance—This establishes the accuracy of our plaque growth model in predicting the arterial geometry after the desired timeline.