Sequential Posterior Odd Test Design for Reliability Qualification of Phased Mission Systems

Phased mission system (PMS) is designed to support accomplishment of critical missions in consecutive phases. Reliability qualification test (RQT) by field test aims to demonstrate that the required reliability level has been achieved. However, large scale PMS often suffers from limitation in number of field tests due to cost and other constrains. To address this issue, sequential posterior odd test (SPOT) can be used to reduce the need for field sample size. This paper presents an approach for designing SPOT for RQT of PMS. Information of component reliability is transformed into sample of system mission probability by Monte Carlo sampling and PMS reliability estimation model. An optimal fitting method is proposed for estimating the prior distribution of mission success probability. Decision boundaries and main steps for test execution are given. A numerical example is provided for illustration of the test design procedure.