Technology Forecasting: Action Research on Integrating Scenario Planning and Text Mining

As the world becomes more technology-driven, organizations are identifying and assessing technological opportunities and threats in order to stay relevant. These routines are what we refer to as technology forecasting. However, there is still a need for a method that fits the pace of technological advancements. To provide better guidance, we investigate current technology forecasting methods and execute an action research project in which we integrate scenario planning and text mining as a technology forecasting method. We provide the procedures for integrating scenario planning and text mining and offer a template for executing technology forecasting workshops based on our proposed method. Despite the barriers, such as the complexity of text mining or differences in experience among the participants, we found that our proposed technology forecasting method is perceived as a fast, in-depth, and repeatable approach.