Elaboration of Forecasting Models of Resource Reserves in Projects Based on Historical Data

The paper examines approaches to modeling and forecasting the implementation of IT products on the market in the form of components of information systems (IS) being created based on time series and autoregression models. The work demonstrates how historical sales data of IS components can be used to forecast future demand and how these forecasts can be used to optimize operational processes in the creation of IS projects. Historical data was used to develop an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and tested against actual sales data for a similar period. The obtained results prove that such a model can be effectively used for modeling and forecasting the sales of IT project products and can be used as a decision-making tool.