Optimal Energy Mix Model for the UAE Considering Economic and Environmental Impacts

With growing concerns about climate change and increasing demand for energy, planning and decision-making for an optimal energy mix have become essential for policymakers, energy companies, and researchers alike. This study proposes an optimization-based methodology for determining the optimal energy mix in electricity generation in the United Arab Emirates from various energy sources, such as: natural gas, solar energy, hydroelectricity, biomass, and nuclear power, while simultaneously minimizing economic and environmental costs. The optimization model helps minimize the total cost for future investments in electricity generation capacities over 30 years which includes the installation cost of additional power plants, the fixed cost for annual operation and maintenance, the variable cost for operation and maintenance, and the emissions cost of energy sources. This model addresses energy demand requirements, annual installation capacities, peak demand, and renewable energy technologies. The results show that most future energy installation capacity is obtained from solar photovoltaic energy, followed by natural gas. In addition, CO2 emissions per kWh of electricity generation by 2050 can be reduced by around 10% without limiting fossil fuels and by about 20% with limiting fossil fuels.