Uncertainty Calculation for Spacecraft Thermal Models Using a PCE Method

Thermal analysis of spacecraft uncertainty is an important part to ensure the robust and reliable design of spacecraft thermal control system. However, the current methods for dealing with this part cannot take into account both accuracy and efficiency. In this paper, the thermal analysis calculation of a spacecraft is used as an example, and a chaotic polynomial expansion (PCE) model is used instead of the original model. The PCE model is used to construct the response relationship between the temperature field and the uncertainty input parameters as a means of analysing the uncertainty information of the temperature field, including statistical information such as mean, standard deviation and probability density distribution. The comparison between the PCE model and the original model uncertainty information shows that the PCE model method has the characteristics of high accuracy and efficiency, which provides a good solution to the problem of calculation accuracy efficiency of spacecraft uncertainty thermal analysis.