Gas Engine Power Plant Configuration Optimization Using Loss of Load Probability and Expected Energy Not Served: An Indonesian Case Study

Selecting a Gas Engine Power Plant (GEPP) configuration during the feasibility study stage has a crucial impact on decision-making to minimize the total cost incurred during the power plant lifetime. The total cost analyzed in this study consists of construction cost and total revenue loss during the operation stage. Indonesian National Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) document does not mention the specific configuration for GEPP, only defining the total capacity of the planned power plant. A case study was conducted to analyze the optimum 50 MW GEPP configurations using LOLP and EENS analysis in the Papua Region. Probabilistic approaches by Analytical Method and Monte Carlo Simulation were conducted by varying load loss and Forced Outage Rate. By using an analytical method, the 3x17.55 MW GEPP configuration gives the best option at a load below 35 MW if FOR varied from 0.02 to 0.1. The GEPP arrangement with 4x13.65 MW, 5x11 MW, 6x8.78 MW, and 10.55 MW could offer the lowest cost setup at a load above 35 MW, depending on the FOR and the load values. Monte Carlo Simulation also gives similar results for a 3x17.55 MW configuration giving around 80.8% likelihood of the lowest overall total cost. At above 35 MW load, a 4x13.65 MW GEPP has around 43.5% likelihood of having the least cost, while a 3x17.55 MW has around 37.1% probability. Based on the analysis, determining a proper value of load and FOR is required to obtain the least cost GEPP configurations. Further research can be enhanced from this study by conducting a detailed financial analysis which incorporated EENS analysis, to determine the lowest Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) of the proposed GEPP configurations.