Climate change and building energy systems: Implications and mitigation strategy for Somalia

Under the lens of climate change, buildings are expected to increase their energy consumption for cooling, especially if standard configurations and settings continue to be used. Simultaneously, the integration of renewables, mainly solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, for on-site electricity generation is one of the most promising mitigation strategies against climate change. However, the design and the performance evaluation of these buildings and their energy systems are strongly dependent on the climatic conditions of the site and must also take into account climate change effects. On that premise, the aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the cooling energy consumption and photovoltaic energy production of a representative classroom building in Mogadishu, Somalia. To conduct such analysis, the reference building has been modeled at different indoor conditions, for present (TMY) and future climates (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the IPCC AR6). Results indicated that higher indoor temperature/humidity setpoint combined with ceiling fans reduce the energy consumption for cooling by 19% compared to standard conditions in the present climate and will be able to mitigate the effects of warmer future climate even in the worst-case scenario. On the other hand, higher indoor conditions also proved to increase the renewable energy ratio of the building compared to standard conditions in present climate and will reduce the need for increasing the PV power output in future climatic conditions.