Optimization of Expert Solutions for Events Forecasting

Expertise is a universal method for solving managerial decision problems and is used in cases where there are no (or not found) criteria that allow solving the problem optimally or rationally. At its core, the examination is based on the use of human experience and is carried out with the involvement of experts. Recently, expert evaluations have been intensively used in various fields, especially in the prediction of tectonic natural disasters, because statistical data in this field are very few or difficult to obtain and analyze. Our article discusses the initial and subsequent criteria for determining the competence of experts, what influence the competence of an expert has in calculating his rank, and how these ranks are used for the conclusion of a group of experts, if this or that event will occur or what is the percentage of the event's occurrence.