A data-driven risk analysis of Arctic ship navigation accidents

The challenges faced by Arctic navigation, such as uncertain ice conditions, rapid weather changes, limited communication capabilities, and weak navigational safety support, expose it to higher risks. According to the Arctic Council’s statistical report on polar maritime accidents, there were a staggering 2,638 maritime accidents recorded in the Arctic waters between 2005 and 2017, with a fluctuating upward trend. This study aims to collect and analyze ship accident data in the Arctic waters to identify accident scenarios and primary risk factors influencing the safety of Arctic navigation. Drawing upon the accident scenarios in Arctic navigation, the study retraces the primary risk factor states at the time of relevant accidents based on geographical location information. By utilizing data-driven algorithms, a model for ship navigation accident prediction in the Arctic waters was constructed to gain in-depth understanding of the navigational conditions prone to accidents. The research findings hold practical value in improving quantitative risk assessment, with a focus on navigational risks in the Arctic region. The outcomes of this study can assist maritime authorities and shipping companies in conducting risk analysis and accident prevention measures for ship navigation in the Arctic waters.