A preliminary approach for resilience assessment of Arctic shipping

In recent years, the effect of Arctic waters strategic access has become prominent, intensifying focus on the development of Arctic sea route. Nevertheless, the relatively harsh Arctic environment and the increase of anomalous weather and climate events will inevitably cause impact and damage to Arctic shipping. Therefore, it is crucial to introduce resilience theory to evaluate risk resistance and recovery level. A method for assessing the resilience level of shipping in Arctic waters under high sea ice concentration disruption along the Northern Sea Route was proposed. The assessment of resilience level was conducted in a comprehensive manner, involving the evaluation of restorability, redundancy and adaptivity, through the analysis of the safety characteristics of shipping in Arctic waters. Firstly, the evaluation indicators, such as reliability, restorability, redundancy and adaptivity, were established through a comprehensive appraisal of literature and expert consultation. And Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Interpretive Structural Model (DEMATEL-ISM) was used to construct the resilience evaluation model in Arctic shipping. Secondly, in order to obtain a quantitative analysis of the level of system resilience under high sea ice concentration disruption, Bayesian Network was implemented. The relevant data was obtained through expert questionnaire surveys. Finally, some suggestions were put forward to improve the level of resilience. The preliminary research shows that the resilience level of Arctic shipping is medium, and the improvement of restorability has a positive effect on improving the resilience level. Improving the resilience level of Arctic shipping safety can effectively reduce the adverse effects of environmental disruptions.