Forecasting PV Curtailments in Large Electricity Distribution Networks Using Quasi-Static Time Series Simulations

Recent expansion of renewables within the electricity distribution network is a well-recognized phenomenon. A significant proportion of these renewables are household roof-top photo-voltaic (PV) systems integrated into the low-voltage (LV) distribution network. Customers with grid connected PV systems may endure unnecessary energy curtailments due to poor voltage regulation in the electricity distribution network. Forecasting PV curtailments can be used to evaluate the capability of the distribution network to accommodate a high penetration of PV systems in the future. This paper presents a methodology to forecast roof-top PV energy curtailments of customers across multiple distribution feeders in a large distribution network using quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations. Furthermore, several strategies and augmentations are proposed to be implemented on the existing distribution network to reduce PV curtailments.