Scenario Generation Method for Combined Heat and Power Virtual Power Plant Considering the Correlation of Electric-Heating Load

With the improvement of coupling between the power and thermal system, it is of great significance for the planning and scheduling of combined heat and power virtual power plant (CHPVPP) to accurately construct the scenario of electric-heating load (EHL). However, the uncertainty brought by the long-term continuous growth of electric and heating load will affect the rationality and effectiveness of CHPVPP planning and operation. In this context, the influence factors of EHL are analyzed first, and then the modeling method of EHL correlation based on the Copula theory is proposed to fill in the shortcomings of existing research on EHL correlation modeling. Furthermore, a scenario generation method for EHL in CHPVPP considering the Euclidean distance-based optimal Copula screening and the K-means clustering is innovatively proposed to achieve the typical scenario construction considering the temporal characteristics. The case study on the EHL of CHPVPP in a certain county of China verifies the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.