Research on the Application of Trade Gravity Model in the National Bilateral Export Trade

Bilateral trade refers to the trade in which two countries maintain a balance of imports and exports with each other. With the deepening of economic globalization, export trade has gradually become a major strategic issue related to the future of opening up. Therefore, the analysis of the bilateral export trade volume of a country in economic activities has important practical significance. The research improves the trade gravity model through quantile regression, and realizes parameter estimation through EM algorithm based on considering the influence of hidden variables. The results show that the minimum residuals of the parameters are 0.1489, 0.0057, 0.0049, and 0.0066, respectively, which all appear under the Logistic distribution and follow the Logistic distribution. In the analysis of the bilateral export trade volume of a country, the changes in the four quantiles 0.215, 0.515, 0.765, and 0.965 are consistent with the direction of parameter values. The economic scale and distance of the importing and exporting countries have a positive and negative impact on the bilateral export trade volume, respectively, consistent with international trade theory. The above results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model and provide a methodological reference for the dynamic analysis of bilateral export trade volume of countries.