Evaluation of Photovoltaic Subsidy Policies: a System Dynamics Approach

With the introduction of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the transition to an energy structure dominated by renewable energy generation is accelerating, and the impact of photovoltaic subsidies on the penetration of renewable energy remains to be explored. To compare and analyze the influence of different photovoltaic subsidy policies on the penetration of renewable energy, in this paper, the correlation and interaction mechanism of centralized photovoltaic, distributed photovoltaic, the difficulty of grid-connection, and the penetration of renewable energy are sorted out. Besides, a system dynamic model based on subsidy incentives is established and the changes in photovoltaic power generation capacity and renewable energy penetration between 2020 and 2040 under nine different photovoltaic subsidy combinations are simulated. Finally, a comprehensive rating scheme for the subsidy combinations based on different policy orientations and the level of public satisfaction is proposed, providing a basis for the adjustment of photovoltaic subsidy strategies and the setting of quota parameters.