Reserve Demand Assessment Based on Dynamic Percentage of Renewable Generation and Load Forecasts

In the process of building a new power system based on renewable energy, the fluctuation of both power supply and load makes the safe and stable operation of the power system more difficult. In order to cope with the uncertainty of renewable energy output, it is urgent to accurately assess the reserve demand of power system. In this paper, a method of reserve demand assessment based on load/renewable energy forecast dynamic percentage is proposed. Firstly, the forecast error characteristics of load/renewable energy are analyzed, and the alternate calculation method is proposed. Secondly, the historical data are divided into multiple groups according to time and predicted value by clustering and similarity comparison. Kernel density estimation was used to fit the probability density function curves of the relative forecasting errors of load and renewable energy in each group, and the relative forecasting error interval under appropriate confidence was obtained. Finally, the reserve demand is evaluated based on the power grid data of a province in northwest China, and the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by comparing with the actual data.